California's Billionaire Tax Drives $173M Miami Mansion Spree and a $29B Revenue Hole

California voters are weeks away from deciding on Prop 40, a ballot measure that would impose a one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires who resided in the state as of January 1, 2026. The measure is projected to raise $100 billion — but that figure is already eroding fast, as some of the state's wealthiest residents made their exit before the cutoff date.

Google co-founder Larry Page, now worth $292 billion, is the most dramatic example. He would have owed nearly $15 billion under the measure. Instead, he quietly restructured: his family office and several affiliated entities — including Flu Lab LLC, One Aero, and Oceankind — were reincorporated from California to Delaware in late December. Then came the real estate splurge. Page dropped $101.5 million on an 11,855-square-foot estate in Miami's Coconut Grove neighborhood (the most expensive U.S. home sale of December 2025 and the fourth-priciest of the year) and picked up a neighboring property for $71.9 million — $173.4 million in Miami real estate total.

Page isn't alone. Sergey Brin relocated to the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe and also bought a Miami home. Venture capitalist Peter Thiel similarly departed California ahead of the cutoff. Former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick also left. Together, those four individuals alone would have generated roughly $29 billion in tax revenue — more than a quarter of Prop 40's entire projected haul. The exodus mirrors what's happening in Washington State, where Amazon founder Jeff Bezos left Seattle for Miami ahead of a 9.9% millionaires' income tax, and former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz paid $44 million for a Miami penthouse after Washington advanced similar legislation. Florida's appeal is structural: it has no income tax, no capital gains tax, and no wealth tax.

The political fight over Prop 40 is intensely lopsided financially. Opponents have poured more than $187 million into defeating the measure, dwarfing the roughly $32 million raised by supporters. Billionaire-backed countermeasures — Props 41 and 42 — are on the same ballot and would nullify Prop 40 if either receives more votes. Even if the measure passes, legal challenges are likely: California's residency determination involves multiple factors including time spent in-state and business ties, and the January 1 cutoff date is expected to face court scrutiny. Nvidia's Jensen Huang, notably, has said he's fine with paying the tax — but he appears to be the exception, not the rule.