Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: El-Sayed Leads Stevens in Early Returns

Michigan's Democratic Senate primary is shaping up as one of the defining tests of 2026 midterm politics, pitting progressive Dr. Abdul El-Sayed against four-term centrist Representative Haley Stevens in a race for a seat being vacated by Senator Gary Peters. With just 1% of votes counted, El-Sayed led 55% to 39%, with state Senator Mallory McMorrow pulling a distant 5.7%. Cook Political Report rates the general election a tossup, making the Democratic nominee's electability a central argument in the primary.

The race has been defined by sharp divisions over Israel and Gaza. El-Sayed, a former public health official, drew significant backing from Muslim and Arab American communities — CAIR launched a robocall campaign targeting over 48,000 Muslim voters statewide. Stevens fired back, accusing El-Sayed of making the whole campaign about Israel rather than Michigan. A closing-night campaign event for Stevens at a Grand Rapids bar backfired when the venue issued a public apology, saying it had been told the booking was for a private gathering of Democratic women and would have declined had it known of the connection to the pro-Israel congresswoman.

The coalition math is stark: Stevens is banking on Black voters, older voters, and her suburban Oakland County base — which includes her own House district — while El-Sayed is targeting younger voters, college-educated independents, and Arab Americans concentrated in Wayne County's Dearborn. Senator Elissa Slotkin, noting 1.2 million mail-in ballots cast statewide, predicted strong overall turnout. Early county results showed El-Sayed leading by 16 points in Kent County (Grand Rapids) and 14 points in Wayne County, though both had tiny vote shares reported.

On the Republican side, former Representative Mike Rogers runs uncontested and is positioned as the GOP's vehicle for flipping the open seat. El-Sayed told reporters Monday he would beat Rogers by seven percentage points — a boast Stevens's supporters dispute, arguing a progressive nominee would struggle in a state Trump carried competitively. Michigan's slow ballot-counting history looms large: in 2024, only half of Democratic Senate primary votes were tallied by midnight, with full results not in until 4 a.m. Detroit and Flint have pre-processed absentee ballots in an effort to speed up tonight's count.

Elsewhere on primary night, Virginia's Tom Perriello won the Democratic nomination in the Fifth Congressional District but faces a steep climb in a district Trump carried by 12 points. In Missouri's First Congressional District, a rematch-adjacent race involving Cori Bush — who lost to Wesley Bell in 2024 — is expected to be another late-night call. And in Michigan's 13th District, incumbent Shri Thanedar faces a serious challenge from democratic socialist Donavan McKinney, with the DSA hoping to expand its House caucus on both the Michigan and Missouri fronts.