Kalshi's Paid Influencers Pushed Election Fraud Theories Alongside Betting Odds

Prediction market platform Kalshi asked several of its paid influencer partners to delete posts on X that promoted election fraud conspiracies about the Los Angeles mayoral race while simultaneously advertising Kalshi odds — a collision of misinformation and sponsored content that drew scrutiny from California's governor and raised fresh questions about the influencer-marketing tactics of the booming prediction market industry.

The posts centered on the underwhelming performance of Spencer Pratt — yes, the reality TV personality from The Hills — in the LA mayoral primary, where he competes with City Council member Nithya Raman for a spot on the general election ballot. MAGA influencer Gunther Eagleman, who has 1.7 million followers, posted a series of claims suggesting the election was being stolen from Pratt, labeling them as a paid partnership with Kalshi. Another influencer, Matt Van Swol, questioned how late-arriving ballots could go to anyone other than Pratt, calling it 'literally impossible,' while also displaying Kalshi odds. Conservative influencer Benny Johnson and streamer Kangmin Lee made similar insinuations in posts tagged as paid partnerships with Polymarket, Kalshi's main rival.

Kalshi's spokesperson Dani Lever confirmed the company requested the takedowns, stating the posts violated its affiliate marketing policies. By Friday, the posts from Eagleman and Van Swol had been removed. Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment about its influencer-sponsored posts echoing the same fraud narrative. A pointed unanswered question lingered: if the influencers genuinely believed the election was rigged, should users who bet on Pratt receive refunds?

The episode spotlights the scale and ambition of prediction market influencer operations. Polymarket's chief marketing officer reportedly paid $350,000 out of his personal PayPal account last year to online personalities including Nick Shirley, Brian Krassenstein, and Riley Gaines. Both platforms have also secured partnerships with major media organizations — Kalshi with Fox News, CNBC, and CNN for real-time data tickers, and Polymarket with Dow Jones and Substack — as regulators under the FTC have signaled a more permissive posture toward the industry.

Gov. Gavin Newsom pushed back publicly, criticizing X for algorithmically amplifying election-tampering claims and lambasting prediction markets for profiting off election misinformation. His office warned that with the November 2026 midterms approaching, the dynamic could worsen. Adding to Kalshi's legal headaches: the DOJ and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are separately investigating former congressman George Santos for allegedly manipulating the platform through insider trading — posting a video suggesting he'd attend Trump's State of the Union, then betting he wouldn't show up.