Gulf States Fear US-Iran Talks Will Cement Iran's Control Over Hormuz Strait

Gulf Arab states are growing alarmed that ongoing US-Iran negotiations are narrowing their focus to the Strait of Hormuz and uranium enrichment—sidelining the regional security threats that matter most to countries living under Iranian missile and drone fire. A warning from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev crystallized these fears, with the diplomat bluntly calling the Strait of Hormuz Iran's "nuclear weapon"—a geographic lever that Tehran has spent years preparing to weaponize. Iranian security officials privately echo this assessment, describing Hormuz as a long-prepared "golden, invaluable asset" and a deterrent tool that has now been "drawn from its sheath."

The problem, Gulf analysts argue, is that the talks are increasingly managing rather than dismantling Iran's leverage. By focusing on keeping the world's most critical oil shipping route open—Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of global oil supplies—negotiations are effectively legitimizing Iran's grip on Gulf energy security while ignoring the missiles and proxy forces that have repeatedly attacked Gulf capitals and infrastructure. Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center, warns this represents "not a historic settlement but a deliberate engineering of sustainable conflict," where those who define the rules (Washington and Tehran) are separate from those who bear the consequences (Gulf states).

Gulf officials have privately urged Washington against full sanctions relief without addressing Iran's ballistic missile program and its network of armed proxies. The frustration reflects a deeper anxiety: Gulf states feel sidelined from decisions that directly affect their security, while simultaneously discovering that reliance on a single external protector—the US—has clear limits. Diplomats say sentiment toward Washington now ranges from "quiet resentment to growing frustration," with Saudi and Emirati analysts calling for a regional approach rather than unilateral US decision-making. Yet Gulf leaders also privately acknowledge that without US military superiority—including air defenses like THAAD and Patriot systems—they would have fared far worse during the current conflict.