OpenAI's Growth Stumble: Missed Targets and Computing Spending Crisis Before IPO

OpenAI is facing a reckoning. The AI powerhouse missed its own ambitious targets for user growth and revenue, sparking serious internal friction just as it sprints toward a potential year-end IPO. CFO Sarah Friar has privately warned leadership that the company might not afford its future computing contracts if revenue doesn't accelerate—a stunning reversal for a company that spent the last year on a $600 billion data-center dealmaking spree.

The core tension: CEO Sam Altman has long argued that compute is the ultimate constraint on growth, and he locked OpenAI into massive commitments based on ChatGPT's seemingly unstoppable rise. But that narrative cracked late last year. ChatGPT missed a critical internal milestone of one billion weekly active users by year-end. Revenue targets also fell short as Google's Gemini grabbed market share and Anthropic ate into OpenAI's dominance in coding and enterprise markets. The company is also bleeding subscribers at an unexpected rate.

Now Friar and board directors are pumping the brakes on Altman's "buy everything" compute strategy, creating visible daylight between the CEO and his CFO—though both issued a forceful joint statement denying any rift. The tension reflects a broader reckoning: even $122 billion in fresh funding (the largest round in Silicon Valley history) will burn through in three years if revenue targets hold, and some of that capital is conditional on meeting specific partner agreements.

The IPO timeline itself is becoming contested. Friar has expressed reservations about a year-end listing, warning that OpenAI lacks the internal controls needed for public company scrutiny. Altman favors moving faster. Meanwhile, OpenAI is simultaneously managing a leadership vacuum after its #2 executive took unexpected medical leave and fending off Elon Musk's lawsuit seeking to oust Altman. The company is betting hard on GPT-5.5 and rapid growth in Codex (its coding tool) while cutting other bets like the video app Sora.