Tech IPO Market Roaring Back: Bankers Expect Wave of Public Debuts Within 6 Weeks

Wall Street's mood has shifted dramatically in just two weeks. After months of treating SpaceX's June IPO as the inevitable gateway that would unlock the broader tech IPO market, bankers now believe the dam could break far sooner. At Jefferies' Private Growth Conference at Nobu Malibu—complete with caviar handrolls and lychee martinis—dealmakers were openly optimistic about seeing tech companies go public within the next four to six weeks, buoyed by a historic Nasdaq rally (up roughly 10% since early month) and fading geopolitical fears tied to Iran tensions.

The speed of this reversal is striking. One banker told the reporter that two weeks prior, he would have confidently predicted no tech IPOs until summer. The conventional wisdom has been upended: SpaceX, once positioned as the necessary market-opener, is now viewed as so monumentally large that it exists as its own event. Other companies can and will go public before or around SpaceX's pricing without cannibalizing its moment. "People are very excited about SpaceX," the banker explained. "I don't think that there will be any IPOs that try to price when SpaceX is pricing, but it's not to say that other companies can't go public before SpaceX."

But tempering this euphoria are persistent headwinds. The so-called "SaaSpocalypse"—a brutal correction in public SaaS valuations—has left founders genuinely frightened. Figma, the design platform once heralded as a breakout star, has tanked over 80% since its August debut. This carnage has created a valuation arbitrage trap: private investors remain bullish and willing to pay premium multiples, while public markets are offering significantly lower valuations. As one banker put it, "The public market's paying lower multiples than the private market. It's hard to want to go public when you would be at a lower valuation."

The result is a psychological tug-of-war. For months, cautious founders chose to sit tight, waiting for stronger comparable IPOs and better market conditions. But the sudden 10% Nasdaq surge is introducing fresh urgency: the risk of waiting too long and missing the window entirely. As the first banker summarized the sentiment from CEOs in recent days: "I don't need to wait until June, let's go." The question now is whether fear of missing out will finally overwhelm fear of a disastrous public market debut.