Roblox Stock Craters 27% in Worst Single-Day Drop Ever After Dismal Guidance

Roblox shares collapsed 27% to $35.59 on Friday — the worst single-day percentage decline in the company's history — after a quarterly earnings report and forward guidance that spooked Wall Street. The selloff compounded an already brutal 2026 for the stock, which had already fallen 40% year-to-date before Friday's session. The drop pushed shares decisively below the 50-day moving average near $48.90.

The earnings themselves were a mixed bag. Roblox posted a Q2 loss of 26 cents per share, better than both the year-ago loss of 41 cents and Wall Street's expected loss of 34 cents. But total bookings of $1.57 billion — up 8% year-over-year — missed analyst consensus of $1.6 billion and came in at the low end of the company's own guidance range. Management blamed weaker monetization among younger U.S. and Canadian users and disruption caused by changes to the platform's discovery algorithm, both of which dinged results.

The real shock came from forward guidance. Roblox projected Q3 bookings of $1.58 billion to $1.65 billion — implying a year-over-year decline of 14% to 18% — against analyst expectations of roughly $1.9 billion. Revenue guidance of $1.41 billion to $1.49 billion for Q3 fell far short of Wall Street's $1.86 billion forecast. Making matters worse, the company refused to issue full-year guidance, citing its long-term strategic focus as justification — a move that analysts interpreted as a sign management lacks visibility into its own business.

Two firms moved to Sell ratings in response. BTIG downgraded from Neutral to Sell, while Benchmark Equity Research cut from Hold to Sell, with analyst Mike Hickey warning the platform may be entering a lifecycle decline. Hickey argued that weakness that started with new-user acquisition in Q1 has spread to monetization in Q2 and is now increasingly affecting the under-13 demographic that drives Roblox's social graph, organic growth, and parent-funded spending. Roblox's push into age verification and its broader effort to attract older users appears to be straining the core business that made it dominant.

Not everyone turned bearish. B. Riley held its Buy rating, and Morgan Stanley's Matthew Cost — while cutting his price target from $62 to $55 — argued that platform engagement is showing signs of returning to growth. Cost framed the pivot to older users as a risky but potentially rewarding bet, suggesting that if younger-user engagement holds steady, the long-term flywheel remains intact even if near-term monetization is impaired.