Condoleezza Rice's Case: What the U.S.-Iran War Achieved — and What Comes Next

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice argues that the three-month U.S. military campaign against Iran — though limited and inconclusive in its outcome — has produced a meaningfully stronger strategic position for America and its allies in the Middle East. Rice contends the operation significantly degraded Iran's conventional forces, missile stockpiles, and proxy networks, including Hezbollah and Hamas, while drawing the U.S., Israel, and Arab states into closer defense and intelligence cooperation. She notes that many Arab regimes have dropped their historical opposition to Israel's legitimacy and now actively seek technological and economic partnerships with Jerusalem.

The nuclear dimension is Rice's central focus. She argues that Operation Epic Fury, combined with the earlier Operation Midnight Hammer, has set back Iran's nuclear program by years. While large stockpiles of highly enriched uranium — some reportedly at 60% enrichment — remain hidden somewhere in Iran, Rice contends that the destruction of centrifuge cascades and the conversion facility, plus the elimination of Iran's top nuclear scientists, makes the final leap to weapons-grade material (93%+) virtually impossible in the near term. Her conclusion: the bomb is off the table for now, and that is the essential victory.

Rice uses the war's outcome to argue against a new nuclear deal — at least any deal that includes sanctions relief or unfreezing Iranian assets. She points to the original JCPOA as a cautionary tale, arguing Iran used that financial windfall to rebuild its military capabilities and fund its proxies. Instead, she calls for sustained military readiness in the region, a public campaign to expose Russian and Chinese efforts to help Iran rebuild, and deeper defense-technology cooperation with Arab allies — particularly around drone and asymmetric warfare.

On the global dimension, Rice highlights two notable subplots: China's passivity as Iran attacked Arab economic infrastructure undermined Beijing's credibility as a partner to the Gulf states, while Ukraine's use of advanced defensive capabilities in support of the Iran campaign demonstrated its strategic value to the Western alliance. She argues this moment — with Russia suffering mounting losses in Syria, Venezuela, and on the battlefield — is the right time to press advantages on Kyiv's behalf.

Rice is candid that the war did not topple the Iranian regime, but she sees internal fractures as a real possibility given economic pressure. She notes Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen publicly since his installation, and points out that if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps controls 40% of Iran's economy, sustained sanctions mean that controlling share becomes worthless. Her closing argument is one of strategic patience: no deal is better than a bad deal, and time favors the United States and its allies.